SHORT-TERM...

Upper-level ridging remains in place through the rest of this week, favoring generally pleasant conditions. Unseasonably warm temperature and dry conditions are expected. Several weak shortwaves will traverse the area during this period, however given prevailing northwesterly downslope flow in the mid-levels impacts should be limited to periods of cloudiness. Model agreement is good with ensembles indicating virtually no chance of precip through Friday.

EXTENDED...

The forecast for the weekend remains somewhat uncertain as an upper-level low over the Pacific moves onshore and lifts over the Western US as a shortwave trough. Still some model disagreement in the progression and amplitude of this feature, however, the GFS and EC are trending towards a slower progression and deeper trough, maintaining ridging over Colorado through Saturday. This scenario would favor pleasant weather for the day, however models indicate slightly cooler temperatures and increasing cloudiness. Precip chances increase Sunday but with temperatures expected to remain above freezing, the likely mode is plain rain.

Manitou Springs is classified as a humid continental climate (Koppen Dfb) and experiences all four seasons. During the fall, conditions are generally dry with mild days and crisp nights.

The average high temperature for the area on November 15th is 53.1F. In the last ten years, the afternoon temperature has exceed 60F seven times. At night, the temperature is likely to fall below freezing, however the reception will be held inside the venue's ample space. The average low temperature on November 15th is 24.7F.

Generally, precipitation falls as snow in Colorado during November. Snow has been recorded on this day five times since 2005, but the maximum recorded snowfall was only 2 inches (in 2014). Only trace amounts of precipitation have been recorded on this day since 2014. The average monthly snowfall in the area is 3.7 inches.

The forecast for this year won't be known until about ten days out. Within three to seven days out, the forecast will start becoming more clear and forecast details will fill in through the final three days. Weather in Colorado can be unpredictable, but the meteorology team will be monitoring closely as the day approaches.